Campaign signs fill the windows of the Aroostook County Republican campaign headquarters in Caribou, Maine. Luke Garrett / NPR News hide caption
Luke Garrett / NPR News
Fall came early in Aroostook County, Maine — the shared birthplace of Republican Sen. Susan Collins and her Democratic challenger, Troy Jackson.
By early-September, amber leaves start to greet drivers along the two-lane roads of Aroostook, the northernmost county in the contiguous U.S. This year, a few red, white and blue campaign signs for Collins and Jackson add to the colorful display dotting U.S. Route 1.
Route 1 is a road both Collins and Jackson know well as it runs through both of their hometowns. Collins is from Caribou, Maine while Jackson was born in Fort Kent, about 40 miles north.
Statistically, the race between them is a toss-up, according to Andrew Smith, director of the University of New Hampshire Survey Center which runs polls in Maine. Voters in Aroostook County — who supported Obama in 2012 and Trump in 2016 — could decide which home-county candidate ultimately wins.
"If the rural voters come out and vote strongly, they'll likely vote for Susan Collins," Smith said. "If Susan Collins is going to be successful, she's really going to have to get those blue collar rural voters out to the polls and that's going to be a challenge."
To Smith, both Collins and Jackson face enthusiasm problems.
"It probably helps Susan Collins that [Graham] Platner is not on the ticket because Jackson doesn't have that enthusiasm, doesn't bring that charisma to the race," Smith said. "But at the same time, this is going to be a good year for Democrats and there's not as much reason for Republicans to get out to vote."
Jackson is a late addition to the Senate race after the original Democratic nominee, Graham Platner, dropped out following allegations of rape that he denies.
A campaign sign sits on a lawn along U.S. Route 1 in Aroostook County, Maine. Luke Garrett / NPR News hide caption
Luke Garrett / NPR News
Aroostook County Republican Committee Chair Christopher Lydon isn't worried about any enthusiasm problems for Collins, noting her long record in the Senate.
"I think the base is still there with [Collins] and she does a lot for the state," Lydon said sitting in the party's headquarters in Caribou. "She's been very active this time with the parades and getting out there. So I think despite what the other side might say, I think people are there with her. I think she's got a good chance of winning again."
Collins has won five Senate races. Each time, her home county has turned out for her at the polls by double-digit margins. The Jackson campaign thinks that streak will end in November.
"I think the sixth will be different," Jackson booster and Executive Director of the Maine AFL-CIO Matt Schlobohm said. "I mean, I think Troy will win Aroostook County. I think he will win this race."
Schlobohm first met Jackson 25 years ago. At the time, Jackson was a union organizer for loggers. Since then, Schlobohm has campaigned with him for seats in Maine's state House and Senate — all based in Jackson's home county.
Campaign flyers and signs lay stored at the Maine Democratic Coordinated Campaign Office in Presque Isle, Maine. Luke Garrett / NPR News hide caption
Luke Garrett / NPR News
"Folks in Aroostook County and all over Maine drive a lot," Schlobohm added. "The price of gas is through the roof. Susan Collins voted and supported this foolish, reckless war in Iran that has directly made life harder for working Mainers."
When asked about the Iran war and the ensuing jump in gas prices, Republican Party county chair Lydon backed the president.
"That's a temporary thing," Lydon said sitting beside a lifesized cut out of Trump. "I think the president is doing something that needed to be done, that's carrying on a lot longer than he thought it would."
A life-sized cardboard cutout of President Trump is propped up in the Aroostook County Republican headquarters in Caribou, Maine. Luke Garrett / NPR News hide caption
Luke Garrett / NPR News
But he acknowledged the political problem the war has created.
"People are angry about the price of gas and, I mean, heating oil is coming up in the winter," Lydon said. "But in the long run, it should be better for the world."
In the parking lot outside Lydon's office, 54-year-old Sabrina Haney sold produce from local farmers beside a sign listing "corn, cukes, and potatoes." She's lived in Caribou for three decades.
"When I moved up here 32 years ago, it was $0.99 a gallon," Haney said of gas prices. "And now, I've seen it go up to $5 a gallon. So it just needs to come down. Maine is a poor state."
But it's the tension with Canada over trade and tariffs she is most worried about.
Sabrina Haney, 54, stands next to Skonieczny's vegetable cart in Caribou, Maine. Luke Garrett / NPR News hide caption
Luke Garrett / NPR News
"We're only about maybe 10 minutes from the border," said Haney, who describes herself as a Trump voter. "It hurts because Canada, the people, used to come here and spend their money and now that they put tariffs on there, they're just going to cut back and stay in their own country."
Moreover, she said farmers are having to raise their prices because they buy their fertilizer in Canada.
"It's ridiculous," she said. "We've always worked well with Canada."
Despite this, she still backs Trump and plans to vote for Collins.
In Fort Kent, Maine, near the U.S.-Canada border, 43-year-old Brandon Goding is also feeling the pain. He runs a small cinema with two 50-person auditoriums and a pair of finicky projectors.
"Last winter, we raised our prices up to $12 [a ticket] trying to help us out with the fuel costs to heat this place," Goding said, standing in the center aisle of the theater. "And that kind of priced some people out. So we dropped it back down to eight."
Brandon Goding, 43, stands in the center aisle of one of his two movie auditoriums at Fort Kent Theater. Luke Garrett / NPR News hide caption
Luke Garrett / NPR News
In the last year, heating oil prices have increased by 74%, according to the Maine Department of Energy Resources.
"I'm definitely scared for the winter," Goding said. "My tank is full right now from the summer and we do have heat pumps, but they're older. They only do so much in these big open spaces"
Between the mortgage for Fort Kent Theater, a monthly $700 repair loan payment and an estimated heating oil bill of $1,000 a month, Goding isn't sure if he can keep the lights on.
"With the habits of people coming out to theaters, I'm not really sure how I'm going to cover that," Goding said. "So it would be nice if we had a candidate that would bring oil prices down."
He plans to vote in November, but flips back and forth between Collins and Jackson.
"Having Troy Jackson be so close here, normally I would go more liberal, but I hear all these bad stories about him, but that's because [we are] in a conservative area," Goding said. "I do like Susan Collins. She has gone against Trump here and there, but she doesn't do it enough."
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